The 2025 draft class projected for year two — where the sophomore leap is most likely to land.
The second-year jump is where a lot of fantasy value gets won: a bigger role, more minutes, and the efficiency that comes with a season of NBA reps. These projections cover the 2025 draft class for the 2026–27 season, so you can find the players whose draft cost still reflects their rookie box scores rather than the role they are walking into.
Also see: Rookie Projections · All Player Projections · Draft Scout
It is the jump in production many players make in their second NBA season, usually driven by more minutes and a larger role rather than a sudden change in skill. Because drafts often price second-year players on their rookie averages, that jump is one of the more reliable sources of value on a draft board.
Every player from the 2025 NBA draft class, matched on draft year. The list rolls forward each season, so it always covers the players heading into year two.
Look for a projected minutes increase paired with a category profile your roster is thin in, and check what changed around the player — a departed starter, a new coach, or a position switch. A rising projection with no change in team context is usually a smaller move than it looks.
Long Season Projections estimate a player’s statistical output across the entire NBA season. They forecast totals and averages for categories like points, rebounds, assists, steals, and fantasy points based on past performance, role, and expected playing time.
Our models combine:
Yes. They are especially valuable before drafts, as they show expected season-long production and help identify sleepers or overvalued players.
| 1 | 0.58 | Cooper Flagg | DAL | 73 | 34 | 24.33 | 1.07 | 6.97 | 5.67 | 1.17 | 1.01 | 2.28 | 49% | 18.28 | 84% | 6.53 | 1.43 | -2.03 | 0.74 | 0.17 | -0.23 | 0.29 | -0.16 | 0.88 | 2.36 | |
| 2 | -0.08 | Kon Knueppel | CHA | 73 | 32 | 19.43 | 3.33 | 5.69 | 4.04 | 0.72 | 0.26 | 2.24 | 45% | 14.54 | 85% | 3.44 | 0.38 | 2.03 | -0.27 | -0.51 | -1.73 | -1.61 | -0.09 | -0.3 | 1.27 | |
| 3 | -0.18 | Cedric Coward | MEM | 73 | 29 | 17.48 | 1.8 | 5.07 | 3.32 | 0.87 | 0.49 | 1.69 | 49% | 12.48 | 84% | 4.03 | -0.04 | -0.72 | -0.73 | -0.83 | -1.22 | -1.01 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 1.39 | |
| 4 | -0.26 | VJ Edgecombe | PHI | 73 | 34 | 14.12 | 1.95 | 5.83 | 3.03 | 1.58 | 0.58 | 1.44 | 46% | 11.87 | 82% | 1.46 | -0.76 | -0.46 | -0.9 | -0.43 | 1.17 | -0.8 | 1.19 | -0.03 | 0.18 | |
| 5 | -0.31 | Dylan Harper | SAS | 73 | 29 | 16.06 | 1.25 | 4.27 | 5.28 | 0.95 | 0.53 | 1.67 | 54% | 12.13 | 79% | 2.3 | -0.35 | -1.71 | 0.5 | -1.26 | -0.97 | -0.91 | 0.82 | 1.79 | 0.15 | |
| 6 | -0.41 | Collin Murray-Boyles | TOR | 73 | 26 | 13.3 | 0.18 | 6 | 2.15 | 1.09 | 1.3 | 0.98 | 62% | 8.89 | 65% | 3.16 | -0.94 | -3.63 | -1.46 | -0.34 | -0.48 | 1.02 | 1.93 | 2.9 | -1.42 | |
| 7 | -0.45 | Derik Queen | NOP | 73 | 27 | 13.1 | 0.32 | 7.52 | 2.96 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 2.22 | 51% | 9.67 | 81% | 3.68 | -0.98 | -3.38 | -0.95 | 0.46 | -0.32 | 0.15 | -0.05 | 0.85 | 0.75 | |
| 8 | -0.46 | Egor Dëmin | BKN | 68 | 31 | 14.14 | 2.83 | 3.54 | 3.35 | 1 | 0.44 | 1.48 | 42% | 11.3 | 83% | 2.24 | -0.76 | 1.12 | -0.71 | -1.64 | -0.8 | -1.14 | 1.13 | -1.06 | 0.56 | |
| 9 | -0.5 | Ace Bailey | UTA | 73 | 28 | 15.48 | 2.02 | 3.91 | 2.08 | 0.85 | 0.9 | 1.55 | 46% | 13.01 | 79% | 1.81 | -0.47 | -0.33 | -1.5 | -1.45 | -1.3 | 0.01 | 1.01 | -0.02 | 0.04 | |
| 10 | -0.51 | Jeremiah Fears | NOP | 73 | 26 | 14.97 | 1.46 | 3.22 | 3.53 | 1.2 | 0.43 | 1.69 | 45% | 12.06 | 80% | 3.34 | -0.58 | -1.34 | -0.6 | -1.82 | -0.12 | -1.18 | 0.79 | -0.34 | 0.47 | |
| 11 | -0.74 | Joan Beringer | MIN | 73 | 19 | 10.32 | 0 | 5.72 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 1.48 | 0.65 | 69% | 6.12 | 71% | 2.73 | -1.58 | -3.96 | -2.39 | -0.49 | -2.64 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 2.75 | -0.61 | |
| 12 | -0.91 | Maxime Raynaud | SAC | 73 | 22 | 10.98 | 0.45 | 6.25 | 1.02 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 1.14 | 59% | 7.39 | 81% | 2.23 | -1.44 | -3.16 | -2.16 | -0.21 | -2.7 | -1.2 | 1.68 | 1.9 | 0.35 | |
| 13 | -0.93 | Kobe Sanders | LAC | 73 | 23 | 9.77 | 1.57 | 2.61 | 2.02 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 47% | 7.33 | 85% | 1.58 | -1.7 | -1.14 | -1.54 | -2.14 | -0.8 | -1.79 | 1.91 | 0.04 | 0.4 | |
| 14 | -1.04 | Khaman Maluach | PHX | 68 | 18 | 7.39 | 0.34 | 6.29 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 1.42 | 0.75 | 56% | 5.24 | 74% | 1.6 | -2.21 | -3.35 | -2.56 | -0.19 | -3.29 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1 | -0.31 | |
| 15 | -1.07 | Yanic Konan Niederhäuser | LAC | 52 | 17 | 7.49 | 0.04 | 4.92 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 66% | 4.09 | 77% | 2.66 | -2.19 | -3.88 | -2.46 | -0.92 | -3.22 | 1 | 2.14 | 1.61 | 0.01 | |
| 16 | -1.14 | Danny Wolf | BKN | 68 | 20 | 7.95 | 1.01 | 4.78 | 2.02 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 1.2 | 44% | 6.41 | 76% | 1.72 | -2.09 | -2.15 | -1.54 | -0.99 | -2.38 | -0.78 | 1.58 | -0.36 | -0.12 | |
| 17 | -1.18 | Will Richard | GSW | 73 | 21 | 6.72 | 1.13 | 2.55 | 1.17 | 1.01 | 0.13 | 0.62 | 48% | 5.13 | 88% | 0.81 | -2.35 | -1.92 | -2.07 | -2.17 | -0.75 | -1.92 | 2.51 | 0.08 | 0.15 | |
| 18 | -1.23 | Tre Johnson | WAS | 73 | 22 | 9.09 | 1.47 | 2.52 | 1.91 | 0.5 | 0.23 | 1.18 | 43% | 8.01 | 89% | 0.88 | -1.85 | -1.31 | -1.61 | -2.19 | -2.47 | -1.67 | 1.62 | -0.62 | 0.2 | |
| 19 | -1.23 | Will Riley | WAS | 73 | 20 | 8.77 | 0.93 | 2.23 | 1.69 | 0.61 | 0.13 | 0.98 | 47% | 6.77 | 81% | 1.74 | -1.92 | -2.28 | -1.74 | -2.34 | -2.1 | -1.93 | 1.93 | 0.11 | 0.21 | |
| 20 | -1.27 | Hugo González | BOS | 73 | 19 | 6.28 | 0.91 | 4.34 | 0.9 | 0.75 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 49% | 5.11 | 71% | 0.46 | -2.45 | -2.33 | -2.24 | -1.22 | -1.63 | -1.58 | 2.39 | 0.27 | -0.36 | |
| 21 | -1.32 | Noah Penda | ORL | 73 | 17 | 6.23 | 0.98 | 3.25 | 1.78 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.87 | 43% | 4.99 | 75% | 1.26 | -2.46 | -2.19 | -1.69 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -1.27 | 2.1 | -0.39 | -0.23 | |
| 22 | -1.36 | Nique Clifford | SAC | 73 | 20 | 7.12 | 0.77 | 2.98 | 2.26 | 0.66 | 0.22 | 1.29 | 45% | 6.04 | 75% | 1.17 | -2.27 | -2.58 | -1.39 | -1.94 | -1.95 | -1.71 | 1.44 | -0.17 | -0.25 | |
| 23 | -1.36 | Nolan Traore | BKN | 68 | 18 | 7.42 | 0.9 | 1.45 | 2.9 | 0.75 | 0.34 | 1.69 | 42% | 6.51 | 82% | 1.29 | -2.2 | -2.35 | -0.99 | -2.75 | -1.65 | -1.39 | 0.79 | -0.62 | 0.11 | |
| 24 | -1.36 | Carter Bryant | SAS | 73 | 16 | 6.31 | 0.92 | 3.41 | 1.16 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 47% | 4.96 | 72% | 1.05 | -2.44 | -2.3 | -2.08 | -1.71 | -3.11 | -0.91 | 2.43 | -0 | -0.36 | |
| 25 | -1.37 | Noa Essengue | CHI | 44 | 14 | 6.58 | 0.74 | 3.13 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 43% | 5.21 | 72% | 1.95 | -2.39 | -2.62 | -2.4 | -1.86 | -2.57 | -0.95 | 2.52 | -0.44 | -0.46 | |
| 26 | -1.4 | Kasparas Jakučionis | MIL | 68 | 15 | 5.74 | 1.04 | 1.74 | 2.35 | 0.49 | 0.1 | 0.76 | 43% | 4.19 | 88% | 1.24 | -2.57 | -2.09 | -1.33 | -2.6 | -2.51 | -2.01 | 2.28 | -0.33 | 0.38 | |
| 27 | -1.47 | Jase Richardson | ORL | 73 | 14 | 6.1 | 0.59 | 1.58 | 1.26 | 0.51 | 0.08 | 0.48 | 51% | 4.48 | 79% | 1.25 | -2.49 | -2.9 | -2.01 | -2.68 | -2.46 | -2.06 | 2.73 | 0.33 | -0.05 | |
| 28 | -1.47 | Ryan Kalkbrenner | CHA | 73 | 14 | 4.09 | 0.01 | 3.45 | 0.63 | 0.2 | 1.01 | 0.55 | 74% | 2.3 | 71% | 0.96 | -2.92 | -3.95 | -2.41 | -1.69 | -3.49 | 0.28 | 2.62 | 1.25 | -0.41 | |
| 29 | -1.47 | Javon Small | MEM | 47 | 13 | 5.63 | 0.82 | 1.7 | 2.03 | 0.51 | 0.15 | 0.91 | 47% | 4.2 | 84% | 1.06 | -2.59 | -2.47 | -1.53 | -2.62 | -2.44 | -1.89 | 2.05 | -0.03 | 0.12 | |
| 30 | -1.48 | Rasheer Fleming | PHX | 73 | 15 | 5.92 | 1.04 | 2.66 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 43% | 5.06 | 57% | 0.97 | -2.53 | -2.09 | -2.55 | -2.11 | -2.49 | -1.1 | 2.46 | -0.41 | -0.93 | |
| 31 | -1.51 | Tyrese Proctor | CLE | 47 | 12 | 5.47 | 0.77 | 1.34 | 1.5 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.74 | 45% | 4.28 | 84% | 0.96 | -2.62 | -2.57 | -1.86 | -2.81 | -2.01 | -2.2 | 2.32 | -0.13 | 0.08 | |
| 32 | -1.51 | Asa Newell | ATL | 73 | 12 | 5.63 | 0.61 | 2.32 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.5 | 54% | 4.16 | 62% | 0.82 | -2.59 | -2.85 | -2.4 | -2.29 | -2.9 | -1.35 | 2.71 | 0.63 | -0.68 | |
| 33 | -1.54 | Ben Saraf | BKN | 44 | 16 | 6.2 | 0.41 | 1.63 | 2.28 | 0.64 | 0.13 | 1.55 | 46% | 5.12 | 82% | 1.29 | -2.47 | -3.22 | -1.38 | -2.66 | -2.02 | -1.92 | 1.01 | -0.07 | 0.13 | |
| 34 | -1.56 | Drake Powell | BKN | 47 | 16 | 5.39 | 0.76 | 1.32 | 0.88 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 45% | 4.34 | 90% | 0.82 | -2.64 | -2.59 | -2.25 | -2.82 | -2.77 | -1.82 | 2.6 | -0.18 | 0.22 | |
| 35 | -1.56 | Liam McNeeley | CHA | 44 | 12 | 5.12 | 0.86 | 2.3 | 0.76 | 0.21 | 0.1 | 0.39 | 41% | 3.69 | 84% | 1.44 | -2.7 | -2.41 | -2.32 | -2.3 | -3.47 | -2.01 | 2.88 | -0.43 | 0.27 | |
| 36 | -1.58 | Sion James | CHA | 56 | 14 | 3.83 | 0.77 | 2.28 | 1.59 | 0.5 | 0.12 | 0.52 | 40% | 3.17 | 82% | 0.63 | -2.98 | -2.58 | -1.8 | -2.31 | -2.47 | -1.96 | 2.67 | -0.46 | -0.11 | |
| 37 | -1.6 | Mohamed Diawara | NYK | 73 | 13 | 5.25 | 0.95 | 1.68 | 1.32 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 41% | 4.52 | 72% | 0.77 | -2.67 | -2.24 | -1.97 | -2.63 | -3.07 | -1.93 | 2.59 | -0.51 | -0.35 | |
| 38 | -1.62 | Walter Clayton Jr. | MEM | 64 | 12 | 4.98 | 0.74 | 1.12 | 1.99 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 1.01 | 42% | 4.08 | 89% | 0.96 | -2.73 | -2.63 | -1.55 | -2.93 | -2.94 | -1.84 | 1.88 | -0.45 | 0.27 | |
| 39 | -1.62 | Adou Thiero | LAL | 73 | 12 | 4.18 | 0.2 | 2.22 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 52% | 2.88 | 70% | 1.43 | -2.9 | -3.6 | -2.34 | -2.34 | -2.52 | -1.58 | 2.63 | 0.26 | -0.5 | |
| 40 | -1.62 | Thomas Sorber | OKC | 55 | 12 | 3.97 | 0.21 | 2.79 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 0.5 | 0.76 | 46% | 3.39 | 73% | 0.91 | -2.95 | -3.58 | -2.33 | -2.04 | -2.73 | -1 | 2.29 | -0.11 | -0.32 | |
| 41 | -1.66 | Micah Peavy | NOP | 47 | 13 | 3.71 | 0.41 | 1.46 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 44% | 3.27 | 76% | 0.53 | -3 | -3.22 | -2.32 | -2.75 | -2.19 | -1.92 | 2.99 | -0.19 | -0.26 | |
| 42 | -1.66 | Bogoljub Marković | MIL | 47 | 11 | 4.45 | 0.66 | 2.1 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.7 | 42% | 3.66 | 78% | 0.86 | -2.84 | -2.77 | -2.31 | -2.41 | -3.06 | -1.67 | 2.38 | -0.35 | -0.15 | |
| 43 | -1.77 | Alijah Martin | TOR | 47 | 9 | 3.59 | 0.35 | 1.44 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 41% | 3.09 | 75% | 0.94 | -3.03 | -3.32 | -2.44 | -2.76 | -2.91 | -1.98 | 2.83 | -0.4 | -0.26 | |
| 44 | -1.8 | Chaz Lanier | DET | 21 | 10 | 3.56 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.26 | 36% | 3.36 | 79% | 0.24 | -3.04 | -2.31 | -2.52 | -3.08 | -3.31 | -2.12 | 3.09 | -0.74 | -0.26 | |
| 45 | -1.8 | Yang Hansen | POR | 22 | 9 | 3.62 | 0.28 | 1.95 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.66 | 40% | 3.27 | 74% | 0.95 | -3.02 | -3.46 | -2.53 | -2.49 | -3.58 | -1.34 | 2.44 | -0.45 | -0.3 | |
| 46 | -1.82 | Koby Brea | PHX | 22 | 8 | 3.39 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 42% | 2.79 | 80% | 0.2 | -3.07 | -2.35 | -2.46 | -3.09 | -3.68 | -2.07 | 2.97 | -0.31 | -0.26 | |
| 47 | -1.84 | Jahmai Mashack | MEM | 21 | 9 | 2.65 | 0.26 | 1.1 | 0.96 | 0.44 | 0.18 | 0.63 | 44% | 2.4 | 63% | 0.47 | -3.23 | -3.49 | -2.2 | -2.94 | -2.67 | -1.8 | 2.49 | -0.19 | -0.5 | |
| 48 | -1.86 | Kam Jones | MIL | 16 | 9 | 3.06 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 1.24 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.42 | 45% | 2.78 | 61% | 0.25 | -3.14 | -3.18 | -2.02 | -3.06 | -3.33 | -2.23 | 2.83 | -0.16 | -0.43 | |
| 49 | -1.86 | Brooks Barnhizer | OKC | 50 | 9 | 2.04 | 0.24 | 1.69 | 0.5 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 42% | 1.87 | 74% | 0.28 | -3.36 | -3.52 | -2.48 | -2.63 | -3.13 | -1.9 | 3.08 | -0.22 | -0.3 | |
| 50 | -1.88 | Amari Williams | BOS | 16 | 7 | 1.89 | 0 | 1.95 | 0.6 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 55% | 1.3 | 67% | 0.7 | -3.39 | -3.96 | -2.42 | -2.49 | -3.54 | -1.37 | 2.72 | 0.16 | -0.49 | |
| 51 | -1.89 | Rocco Zikarsky | MIN | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1.59 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 66% | 1.31 | 63% | 0.45 | -3.37 | -3.96 | -2.71 | -2.68 | -3.79 | -1.28 | 3.1 | 0.45 | -0.5 | |
| 52 | -1.9 | John Tonje | POR | 16 | 8 | 2.84 | 0.46 | 1.1 | 0.39 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.34 | 31% | 2.9 | 83% | 0.69 | -3.19 | -3.14 | -2.55 | -2.94 | -3.5 | -2.1 | 2.95 | -0.96 | -0.06 |
